Manufacturing
The Manufacturing Economic Update
Dr. Chad Moutray
Chief Economist - National Association of Manufactures
Director, Center for Manufacturing Research - The Manufacturing Institute
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quarter, 1997-2020
(Recessions Are Highlighted with Gray Shading)
Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quarter
(First Quarter 2019 – Third Quarter 2020)
Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
(Change in Manufacturing Activity in Third Quarter Relative to Second Quarter 2020)
Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
NAM Manufacturers' Outlook Survey, Third Quarter 2020
When Firms Expect Revenues to Return to Pre-COVID-19 Levels
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey Primary Business Challenges
(Third Quarter 2020)
Note: Respondents were able to check all that apply. Therefore, responses exceed 100 percent.
ISM® Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index®
(August 2019 – August 2020)
Monthly Percentage Changes in Manufacturing Production
(March – August 2020)
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Year-Over-Year Industrial Production Growth
(August 2019 – August 2020)
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Manufacturing Production and Capacity Utilization
(January 2008 to 2020)
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Monthly Percentage Change in Manufacturing Production
by Major Sector, August 2020
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Largest Grouping of Declines by Manufacturing Sector, February to April 2020
Manufacturing Production for Select Industries Since 2015 (2012=100), Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Declines by Manufacturing Sector, February to April (February to August in Parenthesis)
Motor vehicles and parts, -83.5% (-2.0%)
Apparel and leather goods, -32.0% (-8.9%)
Printing and related support activities, -31.3% (-17.4%)
Textiles and products, -28.0% (-12.4%)
Furniture and related products, -27.7% (-11.2%)
Aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, -27.5% (-9.6%)
Primary metals, -25.5% (-19.5%)
Middle Grouping of Declines by Manufacturing Sector, February to April 2020
Manufacturing Production for Select Industries Since 2015 (2012=100), Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Declines by Manufacturing Sector, February to April (February to August in Parenthesis)
Plastics and rubber products, -24.5% (-6.3%)
Petroleum and coal products, -23.8% (-14.0%)
Miscellaneous durable goods, -23.1% (-4.8%)
Machinery, -22.1% (-9.2%)
Nonmetallic mineral products, -19.9% (-7.9%)
Wood products, -15.3% (-4.4%)
Fabricated metal products, -14.9% (-10.2%)
Smallest Grouping of Declines by Manufacturing Sector, February to April 2020
Manufacturing Production for Select Industries Since 2015 (2012=100), Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Declines by Manufacturing Sector, February to April (February to July in Parenthesis)
Electrical equipment and appliances, -11.9% (-11.5%)
Food, beverage and tobacco, -10.1% (-3.1%)
Chemicals, -5.8% (-2.8%)
Computer and electronic products, -5.1% (+1.1%)
Paper, -3.7% (-8.8%)
Manufactured Durable Goods Orders and Shipments
(August 2019 – August 2020, in Billions of Dollars)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Core Capital Goods New Orders and Shipments, 2010–2020
(in Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
Note: "Core capital goods" are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Indices® for the Top 10 Export Markets for U.S. Manufactured Goods
(August 2020)
Note: Top 10 Export Markets Based on 2019 Data from the U.S. Commerce Department
Source: IHS Markit
Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.8
Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI: 52.5
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 51.7
U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Markit): 53.1
Global IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Indices®, including for the Top 10 Export Markets for U.S. Manufactured Goods
(Candlestick Chart for January through August 2020)
Note: Top 10 Export Markets Based on 2019 Data from the U.S. Commerce Department
Source: IHS Markit
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index Against Broad Index of Currencies, Goods and Services, 2014–2020
(Currency Units per U.S. Dollar, January 2006=100)
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Monthly Unemployment Rate, 2005–2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Change in Manufacturing Employment, 2020
(in Thousands of Workers)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics